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UPST Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Upstart's Q3 consensus calls for $364.63M in revenues, up 31.6%, and EPS of 60 cents, up 15.4%.
Preliminary Q3 loan originations fell to $4.12B from $4.2B in Q2, signaling softer lending volumes.
Elevated default risk may curb loan approvals, while cost control and funding commitments could help.
Upstart Holdings (UPST - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, before the closing bell. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and earnings per share.
In the last reported quarter, top-line growth at this fintech company, which provides an AI lending platform, was driven by higher marketplace originations, stronger fee revenues and continued expansion beyond core unsecured lending. Profitability improved despite higher operating costs.
In the trailing four quarters, Upstart surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and missed in the remaining periods. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:
Key Factors to Watch Ahead of Upstart’s Q3 Results
Upstart Holdings heads into its third-quarter 2026 earnings release with mixed lending signals. Preliminary originations reached $4.12 billion during July-September, slightly below the $4.2 billion recorded in the second quarter. The modest sequential decline suggests loan volumes faced pressure despite continued demand for its AI-powered lending platform.
Unsecured lending is likely to have remained the main earnings driver. Core personal loan originations jumped 27% sequentially in the second quarter, helped by stronger underwriting and efficient borrower acquisition. These improvements, along with relatively stable take rates, are likely to have supported fee revenues and contribution profit in the third quarter, even as overall volumes softened.
Home and Auto lending is also likely to have moved closer to profitability. Their combined contribution margin improved to negative 35% in the second quarter, and better pricing and origination efficiency could have reduced third-quarter losses. September's expanded Commonwealth Credit Union partnership in secured lending may have offered modest support, although its immediate contribution remains uncertain.
Credit conditions are likely to have presented challenges. The Upstart Macro Index stood at 1.50 on Sept. 3, indicating elevated default risk. This may have restrained loan approvals and affected fair-value adjustments. However, previously secured institutional funding commitments may have helped maintain lending capacity while limiting additional balance sheet exposure.
Cost discipline could have supported earnings. Management expected third-quarter 2026 fixed expenses to rise only at a low-single-digit sequential rate and adjusted EBITDA to improve during the second half. It reaffirmed full-year guidance of approximately $1.4 billion in revenues and $294 million in adjusted EBITDA. Still, softer originations and credit risks may have limited quarterly upside.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $364.63 million, indicating an increase of 31.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. While estimates have remained unchanged over the past 60 days for UPST, the consensus mark for earnings stands at 60 cents per share, calling for a rise of 15.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for UPST:
Our proprietary model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Upstart has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies — Block, Inc. (XYZ - Free Report) and StoneCo Ltd. (STNE - Free Report) — worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:
Block currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. Block is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3.
StoneCo currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.74% and a Zacks Rank #3. STNE is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 12.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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UPST Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Upstart Holdings (UPST - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, before the closing bell. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and earnings per share.
In the last reported quarter, top-line growth at this fintech company, which provides an AI lending platform, was driven by higher marketplace originations, stronger fee revenues and continued expansion beyond core unsecured lending. Profitability improved despite higher operating costs.
In the trailing four quarters, Upstart surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and missed in the remaining periods. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote
Key Factors to Watch Ahead of Upstart’s Q3 Results
Upstart Holdings heads into its third-quarter 2026 earnings release with mixed lending signals. Preliminary originations reached $4.12 billion during July-September, slightly below the $4.2 billion recorded in the second quarter. The modest sequential decline suggests loan volumes faced pressure despite continued demand for its AI-powered lending platform.
Unsecured lending is likely to have remained the main earnings driver. Core personal loan originations jumped 27% sequentially in the second quarter, helped by stronger underwriting and efficient borrower acquisition. These improvements, along with relatively stable take rates, are likely to have supported fee revenues and contribution profit in the third quarter, even as overall volumes softened.
Home and Auto lending is also likely to have moved closer to profitability. Their combined contribution margin improved to negative 35% in the second quarter, and better pricing and origination efficiency could have reduced third-quarter losses. September's expanded Commonwealth Credit Union partnership in secured lending may have offered modest support, although its immediate contribution remains uncertain.
Credit conditions are likely to have presented challenges. The Upstart Macro Index stood at 1.50 on Sept. 3, indicating elevated default risk. This may have restrained loan approvals and affected fair-value adjustments. However, previously secured institutional funding commitments may have helped maintain lending capacity while limiting additional balance sheet exposure.
Cost discipline could have supported earnings. Management expected third-quarter 2026 fixed expenses to rise only at a low-single-digit sequential rate and adjusted EBITDA to improve during the second half. It reaffirmed full-year guidance of approximately $1.4 billion in revenues and $294 million in adjusted EBITDA. Still, softer originations and credit risks may have limited quarterly upside.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $364.63 million, indicating an increase of 31.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. While estimates have remained unchanged over the past 60 days for UPST, the consensus mark for earnings stands at 60 cents per share, calling for a rise of 15.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for UPST:
Our proprietary model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Upstart has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies — Block, Inc. (XYZ - Free Report) and StoneCo Ltd. (STNE - Free Report) — worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:
Block currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. Block is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3.
StoneCo currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.74% and a Zacks Rank #3. STNE is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 12.